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DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 10:38
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher Ahead of USDA Report
Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are
13 to 16 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are
13 to 16 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is working higher with the S&P up 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30
points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude
up .20 and natural gas up .08 cents. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals
have turned mixed with gold off 5.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with spreads holding with
firmer action as we head toward the report. Looking to the report, the average
acre guess is 90.88 million acres of corn, with stocks at 7.470 billion bushels
(bb) versus 89.4 million acres and 7.758 bb in stock last year. Ethanol margins
will need more help from unleaded to boost blender action with unleaded staying
rangebound. Basis has continued to generally drift back higher. The daily
export wire was quiet for the first time this week. The second crop in Brazil
is heading toward the better part of the growing season with trade watching
forecasts into April for development with some concerns on the horizon as we
get into April. On the May chart we are solidly above the 20-day moving
average, which is now support at $6.33, and resistance is at the Upper
Bollinger Band at $6.57, which we are just below pre-report.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 13 to 16 cents higher at midday with broad buying
developing in pre-report action. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 120
to 130 points higher. For the report, the trade is looking for 88.242 million
acres and 1.742 bb of stocks versus 90.955 million acres and 1.931 bb last
year. Basis has generally remained solid in the short term with the market
still showing a substantial inverse, albeit just off the highs. May chart
support is now at the lower Bollinger Band at $14.23, which we pushed back
above Monday, with further support at the $14.05 fresh low scored Friday, while
we have pushed above the 20-day moving average at $14.80 at midday.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents higher with trade settling into the middle of
the recent range in quiet pre-report action with KC leading so far. On the
report, trade is looking for all wheat acres at 48.852 million and stocks at
934 million bushels (mb) versus 47.351 million acres and 1.025 bb last year.
Weather will continue to support KC action with the western Plains to continue
to struggle with moisture to the east, while early spring wheat progress will
be limited with cold and snow delaying the start of the season. The dollar
remains toward the lower end of the range even with strength this morning,
while Matif wheat is weaker and weighing on Chicago action again. Little other
change is noted on the world scene for now as India presses into harvest and
other Northern Hemisphere weather issues are limited with continental Europe
generally in good shape. On the KC May Chart the 20-day moving average is
support at $8.27 with the fresh high scored in Thursday's trade at $8.96
becoming resistance for now.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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