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DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/28 10:54
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 3
to 4 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 13 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 3
to 4 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 13 cents lower. The U.S. stock market
is weaker in with the S&P 30 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points
lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is mixed with crude
1.15 lower and natural gas .16 higher. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious
metals are mostly firmer with gold up 45.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing off nearby
support again to start the week after early, risk-off trade. Ethanol margins
will continue to struggle with unleaded values limiting blender margins near
term. Warmer weather should keep planting moving forwards with wetter weather
for the west and drier east in the forecast. Weekly crop progress is expected
to show planting and emergence just ahead of the 5-year averages. Weekly export
inspections remained solid at 1.655 million metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date
pace holding at 129%. Basis should remain fairly flat into May contract
delivery. Double-crop weather in Brazil looks to keep OK moisture in place for
the balance of the month. On the May chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.72
is support which we are tested overnight with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.94
as resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday, pulling back from the
upper end of the range in broader risk-off action as well with oil working to
lead the product side. Meal is 3.00 to 4.00 lower and oil is 45 to 55 points
higher. South American shows little short-term change as remaining harvest
heads toward the homestretch. Warmer weather should boost emergence for early
planted soybeans. The weekly crop progress report is likely to keep both just
ahead of the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections held the recent range at
439,341 metric tons, keeping year-to-date pace at 111%. Basis will likely
remain sideways into the end of the month. On the May chart, support is the
20-day moving average at $10.26, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $10.67 the
next round up.
WHEAT:
Wheat is 8 to 13 cents lower as we washed to fresh lows for the move after
the late-week reversal faded ahead of better expected weather along with
increasingly oversold conditions as the May contract heads toward delivery. The
hard red wheat areas are expected to see better weather into the start of May,
especially for Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Weekly crop progress is expected to
show steady-to-better conditions and average development, along with spring
wheat planting and emergence just ahead of the 5-year averages. Weekly export
inspections were solid at 646,564 metric tons, keeping us at 115% on the year.
MATIF wheat is back at the lower end of the range as well. On the KC May chart,
resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.54 with the next level of support
the fresh low at $5.20 3/4.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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