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DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/09 10:56
Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower; Corn Flat-Higher
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are
2 to 3 cents lower; wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are
2 to 3 cents lower; wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is weaker at midday with the S&P 23 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 18 points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
firmer with crude up 1.40 with natural gas .13 higher. Livestock trade is
mostly higher with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up
32.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to a penny higher at midday with trade working to
consolidate through the nearby resistance with little other fresh news to start
the week ahead of the WASDE report on Tuesday. On the report, trade is looking
for carryout at 1.902 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.938 bb last month, with
world stocks edging lower. Ethanol margins are getting a blending boost from
unleaded rebounding. Generally warmer temps for the center of the country
should keep fall fieldwork moving ahead. Weekly export inspections were solid
at 1.05 million metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date pace at 132% of a year ago.
Basis action has been mixed in the short term with most strength on the river
system. On the March chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.35 is support,
which we closed solidly above Friday with the Upper Bollinger Band at $4.44 as
resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with early strength fading
again with meal holding gains while oil fades back to the lower end of the
range with little other fresh pre-report news. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 higher and
oil is 50 to 60 points lower. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for 473
million bushels (mb) on carryout versus 470 mb last month, with world stocks
slightly higher. South America looks to see the recent pattern continue with
Brazil drier in recent days but still in good shape. Weekly export inspections
were strong at 1.622 million metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date pace at 119%.
Basis is expected to remain flat to firmer in the short term. On the January
chart, trade has resistance at the 20-day moving average of $9.94, which we
faded back below at midday, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $9.72 as support.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade testing nearby
resistance as well with KC action leading to start. The Plains are expected to
be a bit warmer through midmonth with additional moisture limited in the short
term. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for carryout at 815 mb, same as
last month, with world stocks steady as well. Black Sea conditions have
declined a bit into dormancy, which is adding some support. MATIF wheat is
narrowly mixed to start the week, with the dollar holding in the middle of the
recent range. Weekly export inspections eased at bit at 226,513 metric tons
(mt) with year-to-date pace at 130% of last year. On the KC March chart,
support is the recent low at $5.34 and resistance the 20-day moving average at
$5.56, which we have edged above overnight.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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