DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/28 11:08
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 11 to 12 cents lower, soybeans are 16 to 18 cents lower, and wheat
is 4 cents to 7 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is sharply lower with the Dow down 870. The dollar
index is 55 points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are
weaker with crude down $2.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
lower with gold down $38.00.
Corn trade is 11 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade seeing broad
weakness on all ag fronts this a.m. after momentum slowed early in the week
with spillover from outside markets. The export wire is expected to remain
active with the recent spread strength with option origin sales of 207,000
metric tons to South Korea. The weekly ethanol report showed production 29,000
barrels a day higher, with stocks 120,000 barrels a day lower. Basis will
likely remain solid with snow slowing harvest. On the December contract
resistance is the fresh high at $4.21 3/4 with support the 20-day at $3.99.
Soybean trade is 16 to 19 cents lower at midday with spreads widening and
notable product weakness as well. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 lower and oil is 50 to
60 points lower. Brazil should continue to make planting progress with the
better rains short term for most, while Argentina continues to remain slow in
moving soybeans to crushers as their currency remains at the low end of the
range supporting the holding of stocks as a dollar hedge especially with the
dollar strength this a.m. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max
out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels. On the daily wire
110,000 metric tons were reported to Egypt, and 120,000 to unknown. The
November chart has resistance at the fresh high at 10.94 with support the
20-day at 10.55.
Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower with trade following the row crops lower
overnight with trade firming off the lows so far today, with Kansas City
leading action. Rains are expected to remain a bit more active in the southern
plains. The ruble action continues to favor Russia a bit in the export markets
but their domestic prices are now elevated but with improved short term
weather, along with too much rain in Australia as harvest starts. Middle East
buyers are becoming more active with tenders as well. Kansas City is at a
64-cent discount to Chicago with spreads back to the recent highs again before
reversing, while Minneapolis is back to 55 cent discount with very active
spread action. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.79
1/2, and support is the 20-day at $5.42 which we are just above at midday, then
the lower Bollinger Band at $5.05.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN offers additional daily information available free through DTN Snapshot – sign up