DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/26 11:34
Post Turkey Day Slug Leaves Livestock Contracts Lackadaisical
Following the Thanksgiving holiday, the livestock contracts are trading but
no business is really sparking through the complex.
DTN Livestock Analyst
The livestock contracts may be trading and open for business, but the market
has yet to summon any substantial effort from traders or interest from buyers
in the cash markets. The contracts will likely continue to chop through the
rest of the day and resume noteworthy trade next week. February lean hogs are
down $2.78 at $81.475, December corn is down 5 cents per bushel and January
soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 898.57
points and NASDAQ is down 309.56 points.
The live cattle market is trading mixed -- higher in the nearby contracts
but slightly weaker in the deferred months. With the tremendous support that
the market has had in the cash market over the last month, the nearby contracts
are optimistic even on the quiet nature of the day's trade. Meanwhile, the
deferred months are trading softer from a lack of trader presence, as most are
enjoying a long weekend. December live cattle are up $0.17 at $138.07, February
live cattle are up $0.30 at $141.17 and April live cattle are down $0.07 at
$143.82. The cash cattle market is quiet following Wednesday phenomenal trade.
For the week, Southern live cattle traded from $138 to $140 and Nothern dressed
cattle sold from $217 to $220. There hasn't been any cash cattle trade to speak
of, so it's looking like the bulk of this week's business is done with.
Beef net sales of 19,300 mt for 2021 were down 24% from the previous week
and 6% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South
Korea (4,600 mt), China (4,400 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.04 ($280.15) and select down $0.96
($262.15) with a movement of 37 loads (10.33 loads of choice, 6.14 loads of
select, 10.91 loads of trim and 9.31 loads of ground beef).
The feeder cattle contracts are trading mixed as the market looks for
support from traders but will most likely keep the day's sideways nature until
normal trade resumes next week. January feeders are down $0.02 at $166.90,
March feeders are down $0.05 at $167.85 and April feeders are down $0.12 at
$169.67. With how strong the complex rallied on Wednesday, feeders hope to find
continued support to keep the market's recent price surge as both the technical
and fundamental outlook of the market is strong. The only thing that could
greatly affect the market's trade in the weeks ahead is whether or not the
grain market continues to aspire for higher thresholds.
With hopeful aspirations of heightened export demand in 2022, seeing this
week's dismal export report sent the lean hog market soaring lower as the
complex desperately hopes for stronger demand. December lean hogs are down
$2.00 at $73.42, February lean hogs are down $3.00 at $81.32 and April lean
hogs are down $2.65 at $85.40. The remaining weeks of 2021 could be tough for
the hog complex as the holidays slow down production and the futures market is
subject to volatile swings.
The projected lean hog index for Nov. 24 is down $0.93 at $71.63, and the
actual index for Nov. 23 is down $0.59 at $72.56. Hog prices are lower on the
National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.08 with a weighted average of
$54.97, ranging from $54.00 to $57.00 on 4,650 head and a five-day rolling
average of $54.94. Pork cutouts total 126.14 loads with 102.23 loads of pork
cuts and 23.90 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.09, $83.89.
Pork net sales of 17,500 mt for 2021 were down 30% from the previous week
and 43% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico
(11,300 mt), Japan (2,400 mt) and South Korea (1,600 mt).
In planning for the holiday season and what may come with the new year, make
plans to attend the 2021 DTN Ag Summit, December 5-7, in Chicago! Visit
http://www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached firstname.lastname@example.org
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