DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/16 11:44
Thursday's Thorn Still Buried in Side of Livestock Futures
Rounding out the week on a not-so-optimistic note, the livestock futures
head into Friday afternoon trade fully lower.
DTN Livestock Analyst
After a long, gruesome week in the cattle futures, watching the contracts
trade steadily lower into Friday afternoon feels like a brutal punishment and
watching paint dry. The lean hog futures thus far haven't dipped into their
expanded limits but are continuing to feel pressured as the day ticks on. May
corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is steady. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 93.60 points and NASDAQ is up 5.34 points.
Another day, another slippery slope of liquation and high corn prices amid
slightly higher cash cattle prices and higher boxes in the live cattle market.
Man, has it been a tough week! April live cattle are down $0.60 at $121.00,
June live cattle are down $0.45 at $119.22 and August live cattle are down
$0.45 at $119.25. The cash cattle market is still surprisingly quiet following
Thursday's trade. There should be more cattle trade before the end of the day,
though as of right now the countryside is oddly quiet. Feedlots grew skeptical
about waiting the week out much longer than Thursday as they feared the week's
lighter kill, the rising cost of corn and some had a basis incentive.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.32 ($276.94) and select up $0.70
($269.13) with a movement of 61 loads (37.31 loads of choice, 6.06 loads of
select, 9.32 loads of trim and 7.84 loads of ground beef).
Feeder cattle futures are finishing up in the same doggish manner of their
entire week. Without much incentive from the cash cattle market, and even
though corn prices are trading lower heading into the afternoon, the market
still must weigh the facts that inputs are high compared to their returns on
cattle at this point. April feeders are down $0.02 at $140.02, May feeders are
down $0.37 at $144.05 and August feeders are down $0.52 at $155.07.
With the April contract now expired, the lean hog market looks to June to
set the pace. June lean hogs are down $1.67 at $103.02, July lean hogs are down
$1.60 at $100.77 and August lean hogs are down $0.82 at $96.97. Packers
vigorously supported the cash hog market early Friday morning as there's
already been upward of 7,600 head bought at $2.80 more than Thursday morning's
weighted average. After a volatile trade throughout Thursday, seeing the
complex trade $1.00 to $2.00 lower is better than the steep $3.00 dip the
market took Thursday. But how the contracts trade throughout the afternoon will
be vital as the volatile environment can change in a second.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/14/2021 is up $0.33 at $103.03 and
the actual index for 4/13/2021 is up $0.32 at $102.70. Hog prices are sharply
higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.80 with a weighted
average of $103.96, ranging from $101.30 to $106.00 on 7,610 head and a
five-day rolling average of $101.32. Pork cutouts total 162.75 loads with
132.20 loads of pork cuts and 30.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down
ShayLe Stewart can be reached firstname.lastname@example.org
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